Cindy Nelson AZ REALTOR Blog

Numbers don't lie. Here is what is really happening in the Phoenix area real estate market. Find out why now is an ideal window for buyers to make a move.

Cindy Nelson is an Arizona native and REALTOR® with Realty ONE Group and serves the Phoenix Metro area and the White Mountain region. Cindy is a subscriber to the Cromford Market Report and an active Trusted Advisor University member. 

After 200% Increase, Supply Still Nearly 40% Below Normal

Sale Prices Up 3.5% Since December

For Buyers:

Rates defied industry predictions once again and rose over a point from 5.99% to 7.1% between February 2nd and March 2nd. For the past 4 weeks, rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, figuratively "pinching the hose" on demand during the popular Spring season for buyers. At 9,001, contracts are at their 4th lowest count since 2005, the lowest counts were in 2006-2008 and normal range is 11,000-13,000. Buyers are not the only ones holding back due to higher mortgage rates, sellers are too. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded going back at least 23 years. This may be shocking to some as there has been a 200% increase in supply year-over-year, but last year at this time supply was merely 4,820 active listings. The reality is that ARMLS active supply spiked over...

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Phoenix Buyer Market - Aaaand It's Gone
Median Price Down $65,000 Since May 2022

For Buyers:
Last year, traditional buyers took a back seat to an influx of cash investors and speculators who outbid them. Then mortgage rates increased and suppressed their power even more. This was especially prominent in the market under $500K where owner occupant buyers made up just 56.8% of sales in June (normally 70-75%), and investors took 31% (normally 11-17%). As of November, traditional buyers have once again returned to 71% market share under $500K, and investors have retreated under 20%. Investors make up the majority of losses associated with recent price declines. This is great news, especially for first-time home buyers, as prices have come down significantly for starter...

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More Buyers Got Help With Closing Costs in September
What To Expect for Housing in the 4th Quarter

For Buyers:
­The price reductions keep coming. Last week when mortgage rates hit 7.0%, the Greater Phoenix housing market responded with 4,427 price reductions, 24% of all active properties in the MLS. At least 50% of those dropped their price by $12,000 or more.

September saw 1,372 closings involving seller closing cost assistance to the buyer, equating to 23% of MLS sales, with a median concession of $7,000. This is a 334% increase from last June's count of just 316 sales involving concessions. New home sales through the MLS showed 33% with concessions, and 50% at $10,000 or more. OpenDoor, as a seller, paid concessions on 355 transactions, 77% of their sales through MLS, with...

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If you're looking for a buyer's market, Buckeye, Queen Creek, and Maricopa will provide buyers with the upper hand when it comes to negotiating. Here is a look at the rest of the Phoenix metro area real estate market. 

This chart shows you the Cromford Market Index (CMI). 

CMI > 110 = Favors Sellers

CMI of 90-110 = Balanced Market

CMI

As you can see, Gilbert is on the cusp of a buyer's market and Surprise and Tempe could follow within days.  This week, just 6 of the 17 largest cities in the Phoenix Metro area are statistically in a seller's market.  Two of those cities, Goodyear and Avondale, could move into a balanced market shortly. 

Overall, the demand for the entire Phoenix Metro area is currently at 81%. Supply is at 65.6%....

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